Why most challenges fail on the rules rather than the setup: what 40,000 simulated challenges show about risk per trade, the daily loss limit that counts open trades, the personal rules that keep you inside it — and the honest limit of small risk. This free lesson covers: Why most fail, The rules you are playing, 40,000 challenges, What failed the 2% runs?, Work it out, An honest caveat, The limit counts open trades, Breached or not?, Your own rules, inside theirs, Target hit on day two, Small risk cannot create an edge, Put it together.
Going deeper
Pass rates: published estimates mostly sit at 5–15% of challenge buyers reaching a funded account (FPFX Tech data via Fortunly and Finance Magnates; Topstep’s own 2025 figure is 16.8% of Combines completed), and only around 7% of buyers ever receive a payout. These are firm- or vendor-reported numbers, not audited ones.
The simulation behind the lesson: 40,000 runs per risk level; win rate 40%, wins pay 2R, losses cost 1R; 3 trades a day; fixed risk on the initial balance; pass at +10%; fail on a −5% day measured from the day’s opening balance or on −10% from the start. No time limit, no costs or slippage. Results: 2% risk 47% pass (median 2 trading days), 1% 87% (10 days), 0.5% 98% (27 days). At 1–2 trades a day, 2% risk passed about 72%.
The same model with a coin-flip strategy (50% wins, 1:1) passed about 50% at 0.5% risk and 34% at 2%. Small risk preserves an edge; it does not create one.
Rules quoted are FTMO’s 2-step challenge as described by third-party summaries in 2026 (10% / 5% targets, 5% daily loss measured on equity, 10% static maximum loss, no time limit, 4 minimum trading days). Every firm differs — check the current rulebook of yours.
No. The 98% comes from a simulation of a strategy that has an edge, with no costs or slippage. A strategy without an edge failed about half the time at the same risk.
Because the daily limit does not care how close you are. A bigger position near the finish is exactly how a passing account turns into a failed one in one afternoon.
Survive First · Learn · Step 1 of 12 · about 4 min
Industry estimates put the share of challenge buyers who get funded at roughly 5–15%, and fewer still are ever paid out.
The most-cited cause is the drawdown rules — above all the daily loss limit — not a strategy that stopped working.